The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Initiative - Revisit

About two months ago, I wrote an article about the Gulf Coordination Council (GCC) initiaitive and here we're revisiting the GCC deal that we got stuck with since April of 2011.

I don't know about you, with all due respect to the citizens of Saudi Arabia, I call the GCC initiative, "KSA Royal Family Initiative". The initiative/deal was proposed by the KSA Royal Family and the rest of Gulf Countries were dragged into it. Either way, let's take closer look at it... 

On Thursday, November 10th, the United Nations envoy Jamal Benomar arrived in the capital of Yemen, Sanaa, to negotiate a handover of power in hopes of ending the ongoing protests calling for immediate step-down of President Saleh. Now, you are probably thinking, it's great if Saleh and the Ruling Party, GPC, sign the GCC initiative, problem solved!!! You might want to think about it twice because signing the GCC initiative works in favor of Saleh's regime. What about the Youth and their demands? The term "Youth" shall mean the brave men and women camping in the sit-ins and those supporting the peaceful revolution to bring down the corrupt regime.

Aljazeera reported, Yemeni government officials told the Associated Press that if Benomar's trip is successful, Saleh would issue a decree handing over all powers to Vice President Hadi who would then sign an April Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) initiative to name an opposition politician to form a new national unity government to prepare for early elections.

Analysis:

On May 20th, two days after the largest massacre committed by Saleh's security forces and snipers against peaceful protesters, leaving at least 52 people dead, Commander of First Armored Division, General Ali Moshen Al-Ahmar defected. Things were moving fast and in favor of the revolution. Saudi Arabia realized Saleh's regime was about to fall. 

On April 6th, a proposed initiative, lead by Saudi Arabia, was introduced to end Yemen's crisis. Even though it was in favor of President Saleh and the Ruling Party, General People's Congress (GPC), the opposition (JMP) agreed to it and signed it.   

Many of us know that the government of Saudi Arabia has influence on Yemen government as well as some tribe leaders. Having stability and civil state in Yemen is considered a great danger to the Kingdom next door! So our neighbor, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), will do everything they can to insure, the person to rule Yemen is puppet to them, not necessarily President Saleh. Basically, the GCC initiative from day one was a trap to slow down Youth efforts and help Saleh remain in power. 

Considering Saleh, the Ruling Party (GPC) and the opposition (JMP), all signed the GCC initiative, it would only mean ONE-DEMAND has been met, which is removal of Saleh from power. In my opinion, signing the GCC deal will make it more challenging for the Yemeni people to get their demands met, why? Simply, by having a unity government, it means instead of just dealing with Saleh's regime, we'll be faced with the opposition (JMP) and Saleh's regime.

My guess, Saleh is willing to sign the GCC deal and step down if the GCC initiative guarantees at least the followings: 

• Immunity from prosecution for him, his family and relatives
• Maintaining his son Ahmed and nephews in charge of the Armed Forces

To me, agreeing to the above conditions mean a failure to the revolution because Saleh's relatives were the ones who ordered the killings of hundreds of innocent yemeni civilians and should be accountable for their brutal actions. How could today's killers be tomorrow's heroes!  

It's time to put our efforts together for better tomorrow and think not about oneself but Yemen as a whole!     

#SupportYemen

Has Yemen Peaceful Revolution Succeeded?

Asking the same question multiple people, you'll get three different answers (Yes, No and possibly a Maybe). Now, I probably confused you and you're like, help me out here!

Yemen Revolution has its uniqueness just like previous Arab Spring revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and on going revolutions in Bahrain and Syria. What worked in Tunisia doesn't necessarily mean will work in Yemen and so on. Each respected country has unique situation yet our people all demand one thing, end to dictatorship governments and basic human rights. Going back to our question, let's look in depth into the three possible responses:

Yes!
Many yemenis believe Yemen peaceful revolution has succeeded. How? Going back to May 22, 1990, Yemen unification day, south and north Yemen unified the land but our revolution unified our hearts. A drop of blood in Aden is felt in Sanaa and all over Yemen. Saleh's regime ran out of deceitful reasons to divide us as a nation. Massive peaceful protests demanding end to Saleh's regime took place in 17 provinces out of 22. While the regime claims of having support, pro Saleh protest are only carried out in the capital, Sanaa. That raises another question, is the capital still under control of Saleh's regime? The answer is NO! Sanaa is divided into three parts:

• Shaikh Sadiq al-Ahmar's tribesmen control an area of Sanaa, called "Al-Hasaba"
• General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar, commander of First Armored Division, controls part of the capital, near Sanaa University and next to the Youth sit-in camp, knowing as "Change Square".
• Saleh's regime still in control of Yemen government buildings, including Presidential Palace. At minimum, three provinces (Saada, Jawef and Mareb) are no longer under the control of the Yemeni government.

No!
Some people say, most of the armed forces, especially Republican Guards, still under control of Saleh's son, Ahmed. Central Security and other special units still also under control of Saleh's nephews. Thus, Saleh's government still have full control over Yemen despite defection of General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar back on May 20th, two days after the largest massacre committed by Saleh's security forces and snipers against peaceful protesters, leaving at least 52 people dead.


Maybe!
Some people say, the revolution has partially succeeded but due to many uncertainties at this point, it could swing either way. Pointing out, if Houthis in northern Yemen and southern political movement, Harak, demand independent States, then the revolution is failure even with Saleh's ouster. Their biggest fear is the possibility of endless civil war.

Final Thought
In summary, Yemen peaceful revolution, in few days, will enter its tenth month, marking the longest peaceful revolution in history! While some people fear the outcome of our revolution and just want things to go back to what it was prior to the uprising, one thing for sure, we have reached a point where there is no return. Going back is no longer an option! Yes, there are many uncertainties, many challenges ahead of us, many issues may also arise after Saleh's ouster but we're very optimistic about the outcome. As we surprised the world of coming out to the streets peacefully, in a nation consisting of 23 million in population yet 60+ million pieces of weapons. Our people came out in massive peaceful protests demanding basic human rights and an end to  decades of Saleh's corrupt regime with bare chests yet were faced with Saleh's security forces live bullets, RPG's and even Anti-aircraft artillery. The army we thought was there to protect us is being used to kill us. However, no matter what Saleh's regime uses to suppress our revolution, we strongly believe the will of our people will be victorious soon. Our unity is our strength, our strength is in our unity! 

Yemen, what's next?

As Youth remain in sit-ins throughout major Yemen cities (Sanaa, Taiz, Aden, etc.), nothing have changed! The question is, why our revolution have lasted that long with no promising outcome? We're all aware of many challenges facing us as Yemenis but should never be an excuse!

President Saleh left Yemen two months ago for treatment in Saudi Arabic and that did not change anything. Ahmed Ali, his son, is doing a great job of killing innocent civilians. Our newly announced National Transition Council (NTC) did not even survive two days after the announcement. At least 30 pre-selected members refused to participate, claiming they were not consulted with ahead of time.

Anyways, what's next? Should our Youth just continue their peaceful protests? If so, till when?
We have to face reality! Youth can stay years in the sit-ins till they get sick and tired of it and eventually end up going home. YES! That's what will end up happening if Youth do not step up their game. The Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) won't get us anywhere and they already proved their failure many times. That does not mean we should just give up now, as we have reached a point where there is no return.

First step, the Youth throughout Yemen cities should coordinate their efforts. To my knowledge, there is lack of coordination among different groups in the Change Square in Sanaa! If we can't even communicate well among us, how would we expect to bring down Saleh's regime? Let us put our difference aside and focus on the common mission.

Yemeni Youth abroad will continue supporting the Youth in Yemen but there is not much we can do if tents in the Change Square have turned into popular places to chew Qat. If we want a change in Yemen, we must first make a change within ourselves!