Is inking the Gulf Coordination Council Initiative a positive step?

Disclaimer: this article doesn't represent the view of the Yemeni Youth rather it's just my personal view and analysis of the Gulf Coordination Council Initiative, knowing as the GCC deal.

We have been campaigning in the social media (Twitter, Facebook, etc.) against the signing of the GCC deal using hash tag #No2GCCdeal and also promoting it using Facebook  page. Now that the GCC deal has been signed by Saleh, Ruling Party and the Opposition, we need to move beyond that. Instead of criticizing the deal, looking at it as a positive step towards moving the country forward. The Youth have legit demands but let us keep in mind, some demands will take months and maybe years to be met. So, let's take things one-step at a time.

Now, you're probably thinking, what's wrong with this dude? Did he turn against the Youth? Of course not! but let's take a look at our options and think with our brains not our emotions!

How many possible options we had? Only two options...

Option 1 - Peaceful Transition of Power According to the GCC deal

In my opinion, this is the safest option even though it only meets the bare minimum of the Youth demands. The Youth have many legit demands such as prosecuting Saleh and everyone who committed crimes against the Yemeni people. In theory, that's great! But in reality, it's almost impossible peacefully. Look at what has happened in Iraq in the past ten years or so as a result of prosecuting Saddam's regime officials. Also, looking back at what happened in Libya, after the NATO got involved and even after Gaddafi killed thousands of people, the International Community attempted many times to negotiate an exit deal for Gaddafi but he refused. That's why I said let us think with our brains not with our emotions. A reconciliation is the best way to go!

Option 2 - Use of Force 

My prediction is that if we turn to military option as a solution, buckle up! Because we'll be taking long bumpy ride to the unknown!

If Saleh said one thing wise, it's "Yemen isn't Tunisia, Egypt or Libya" and I second that.Zooming in little closer at this option, if war breaks out,my guess it'll be led by General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar and Shaikh Sadiq Al-Ahmar tribe will be also get involved if not more tribes will jump in. Let's just say we conquer Saleh's regime, you think General Mohsen and Shaikh Sadiq will say, we got rid of Saleh's regime/Ruling Party, you may now elect a new President? You're wrong! 
They'll say, since we fought Saleh by sacrificing our lives, now we must have at least big share in the new Yemeni government if not the entire government. It doesn't stop there, the Houthies in northern Yemen will demand independent State, the southern movement (Harak) will also demand independent State, we'll end up losing Abyan province to al-Qaeda for good and I'll personally move to southern Yemen because I had enough of Al-Ahmar's family.

Now, is it worth losing thousands more lives simply to prosecute few individuals? 
Think twice because the outcome is very expensive. I say, let us as a unified nation put the past behind and think about a brighter tomororow. We'll achieve our demands over time but we must be patient and put Yemen's best interest our top priority.

Many people may ask, what about the families of the martyrs? Theoretically, those who killed innocent people must be tried but in reality, if we turn to that option, we'll end up creating more issues than solving existing ones. However, the families of the martyrs MUST be given special attention. We can't bring back the dead but the new Yemeni government have to take care of their love ones.

Yemen Youth revolution has changed history to mark itself by far, the longest peaceful revolution. However, the Youth have been camping in the sit-ins for ten months but certainly won't camp there forever.  

My suggestion is to put the GCC deal behind and move on. The Youth continue their demands peacefully till we see what the unity government has to offer under the leadership of Voice President Hadi. Let us be optimistic not pessimistic and look at the bright side of the GCC deal. You may disagree with me but I feel we have at least achieved one of our revolution goals by bringing down Saleh

 

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Initiative - Revisit

About two months ago, I wrote an article about the Gulf Coordination Council (GCC) initiaitive and here we're revisiting the GCC deal that we got stuck with since April of 2011.

I don't know about you, with all due respect to the citizens of Saudi Arabia, I call the GCC initiative, "KSA Royal Family Initiative". The initiative/deal was proposed by the KSA Royal Family and the rest of Gulf Countries were dragged into it. Either way, let's take closer look at it... 

On Thursday, November 10th, the United Nations envoy Jamal Benomar arrived in the capital of Yemen, Sanaa, to negotiate a handover of power in hopes of ending the ongoing protests calling for immediate step-down of President Saleh. Now, you are probably thinking, it's great if Saleh and the Ruling Party, GPC, sign the GCC initiative, problem solved!!! You might want to think about it twice because signing the GCC initiative works in favor of Saleh's regime. What about the Youth and their demands? The term "Youth" shall mean the brave men and women camping in the sit-ins and those supporting the peaceful revolution to bring down the corrupt regime.

Aljazeera reported, Yemeni government officials told the Associated Press that if Benomar's trip is successful, Saleh would issue a decree handing over all powers to Vice President Hadi who would then sign an April Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) initiative to name an opposition politician to form a new national unity government to prepare for early elections.

Analysis:

On May 20th, two days after the largest massacre committed by Saleh's security forces and snipers against peaceful protesters, leaving at least 52 people dead, Commander of First Armored Division, General Ali Moshen Al-Ahmar defected. Things were moving fast and in favor of the revolution. Saudi Arabia realized Saleh's regime was about to fall. 

On April 6th, a proposed initiative, lead by Saudi Arabia, was introduced to end Yemen's crisis. Even though it was in favor of President Saleh and the Ruling Party, General People's Congress (GPC), the opposition (JMP) agreed to it and signed it.   

Many of us know that the government of Saudi Arabia has influence on Yemen government as well as some tribe leaders. Having stability and civil state in Yemen is considered a great danger to the Kingdom next door! So our neighbor, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), will do everything they can to insure, the person to rule Yemen is puppet to them, not necessarily President Saleh. Basically, the GCC initiative from day one was a trap to slow down Youth efforts and help Saleh remain in power. 

Considering Saleh, the Ruling Party (GPC) and the opposition (JMP), all signed the GCC initiative, it would only mean ONE-DEMAND has been met, which is removal of Saleh from power. In my opinion, signing the GCC deal will make it more challenging for the Yemeni people to get their demands met, why? Simply, by having a unity government, it means instead of just dealing with Saleh's regime, we'll be faced with the opposition (JMP) and Saleh's regime.

My guess, Saleh is willing to sign the GCC deal and step down if the GCC initiative guarantees at least the followings: 

• Immunity from prosecution for him, his family and relatives
• Maintaining his son Ahmed and nephews in charge of the Armed Forces

To me, agreeing to the above conditions mean a failure to the revolution because Saleh's relatives were the ones who ordered the killings of hundreds of innocent yemeni civilians and should be accountable for their brutal actions. How could today's killers be tomorrow's heroes!  

It's time to put our efforts together for better tomorrow and think not about oneself but Yemen as a whole!     

#SupportYemen

Gulf Cooperation Council, Hello neighbor!

Yemen Youth revolution shock the ground under Saleh's government at the time Mubarak's regime came to an end in Egypt. Shortly after, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), lead by Saudi Arabia, proposed initiative to end Yemen's crisis. Even though it was in favor of President Saleh and the ruling party, General People's Congress (GPC), the opposition (JMP) agreed to it and signed it.

What about the Youth demands? In reality, Youth demands are legit but I doubt they'll be met under any peaceful agreement. President Saleh succeeded in manipulating the truth, coming up with various excuses such as AQAP among other things. I have to say, he did well on misleading the International Community, specifically the United States.

My message to the Youth "Do not wait for any foreign assistance/rescue!". We must take matters into our own hands. Yes, we have many challenges and differences but it's time to put differences aside and prioritize our work. The longer we wait, the harder it gets! Let us all put our hands together and give our revolution the boost needed to bring down the corrupt regime!  

Many of us know that the government of Saudi Arabia has influence on Yemen government as well as some tribe leaders. Having stability and civil state in Yemen is considered great danger to the Kingdom next door! So our neighbor, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), will do everything they can to insure, the person to rule Yemen is puppet to them, not necessarily President Saleh.

I was against those who used to critisize the government of KSA but I was wrong. For some reason, I thought they were helping Yemenis but turns out they're helping no one but themselves. I won't get into the details about the Yemeni tribe leaders who receive compensation for their loyalty from the government of KSA. Bottom line is, Yemenis as a whole must stand together in this critical time of Yemen's history to face the challenges ahead of us. Let's face it, if Southern Yemenis, Houthis, etc. each demand dependent state, we'll NOT win over the existing regime. I still don't understand what part of that many people don't understand!

So, it's time to put our grievance behind and look ahead for brighter future. Let us not think about oneself but Yemen as a whole!