Is inking the Gulf Coordination Council Initiative a positive step?

Disclaimer: this article doesn't represent the view of the Yemeni Youth rather it's just my personal view and analysis of the Gulf Coordination Council Initiative, knowing as the GCC deal.

We have been campaigning in the social media (Twitter, Facebook, etc.) against the signing of the GCC deal using hash tag #No2GCCdeal and also promoting it using Facebook  page. Now that the GCC deal has been signed by Saleh, Ruling Party and the Opposition, we need to move beyond that. Instead of criticizing the deal, looking at it as a positive step towards moving the country forward. The Youth have legit demands but let us keep in mind, some demands will take months and maybe years to be met. So, let's take things one-step at a time.

Now, you're probably thinking, what's wrong with this dude? Did he turn against the Youth? Of course not! but let's take a look at our options and think with our brains not our emotions!

How many possible options we had? Only two options...

Option 1 - Peaceful Transition of Power According to the GCC deal

In my opinion, this is the safest option even though it only meets the bare minimum of the Youth demands. The Youth have many legit demands such as prosecuting Saleh and everyone who committed crimes against the Yemeni people. In theory, that's great! But in reality, it's almost impossible peacefully. Look at what has happened in Iraq in the past ten years or so as a result of prosecuting Saddam's regime officials. Also, looking back at what happened in Libya, after the NATO got involved and even after Gaddafi killed thousands of people, the International Community attempted many times to negotiate an exit deal for Gaddafi but he refused. That's why I said let us think with our brains not with our emotions. A reconciliation is the best way to go!

Option 2 - Use of Force 

My prediction is that if we turn to military option as a solution, buckle up! Because we'll be taking long bumpy ride to the unknown!

If Saleh said one thing wise, it's "Yemen isn't Tunisia, Egypt or Libya" and I second that.Zooming in little closer at this option, if war breaks out,my guess it'll be led by General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar and Shaikh Sadiq Al-Ahmar tribe will be also get involved if not more tribes will jump in. Let's just say we conquer Saleh's regime, you think General Mohsen and Shaikh Sadiq will say, we got rid of Saleh's regime/Ruling Party, you may now elect a new President? You're wrong! 
They'll say, since we fought Saleh by sacrificing our lives, now we must have at least big share in the new Yemeni government if not the entire government. It doesn't stop there, the Houthies in northern Yemen will demand independent State, the southern movement (Harak) will also demand independent State, we'll end up losing Abyan province to al-Qaeda for good and I'll personally move to southern Yemen because I had enough of Al-Ahmar's family.

Now, is it worth losing thousands more lives simply to prosecute few individuals? 
Think twice because the outcome is very expensive. I say, let us as a unified nation put the past behind and think about a brighter tomororow. We'll achieve our demands over time but we must be patient and put Yemen's best interest our top priority.

Many people may ask, what about the families of the martyrs? Theoretically, those who killed innocent people must be tried but in reality, if we turn to that option, we'll end up creating more issues than solving existing ones. However, the families of the martyrs MUST be given special attention. We can't bring back the dead but the new Yemeni government have to take care of their love ones.

Yemen Youth revolution has changed history to mark itself by far, the longest peaceful revolution. However, the Youth have been camping in the sit-ins for ten months but certainly won't camp there forever.  

My suggestion is to put the GCC deal behind and move on. The Youth continue their demands peacefully till we see what the unity government has to offer under the leadership of Voice President Hadi. Let us be optimistic not pessimistic and look at the bright side of the GCC deal. You may disagree with me but I feel we have at least achieved one of our revolution goals by bringing down Saleh

 

Yemen - possibility of civil war break out

Analyzing Yemen's situation or crisis as some people put it, which I disagree with, is such a complex task. Therefore, for someone who didn't live long enough in Yemen and/or doesn't have a clear understanding about its people, history and culture; it's very challenging to analyze the situation! 

Some articles talk about the possibility of civil war break out, without really having a solid ground for such analysis. If Saleh said one thing right, it's "Yemen isn't like Tunisia, Egypt or Libya", to each its uniqueness, despite having similar demands.

Few days ago, wrote an article about "the success of Yemen peaceful revolution", a controversial topic worth taking a closer look into. Another controversial topic came to mind and thought why not address it, especially to those who are unfamiliar with Yemen.


There is an old saying, "understanding the question is half of the answer". With that in mind, let's first identify the problems/issues and then analyze them accordingly, shall we!


Many of us buzz when asked this question, what would happen if civil war breaks out in Yemen? Before looking into the possibilities, few things shall be addressed to give a brief background about Yemen, listing main stakeholders (political and tribal factions, etc.)


Tribes and Politics:

• Tribal ties and loyalties - mainly in Ammran, Mareb, Jawef provinces and parts of Sanaa, Dhamar, Abyan, Bayd'a provinces
• To my knowledge, the biggest tribal federations are Hashid (lead by Shaikh Sadiq Al-Ahmar) and Bakil tribes, which play major role in Yemen's government politics. 
• Joint Meeting Parties, known as JMP, consisting of the rest of Yemen political parties with exception to the ruling party, GPC
• Houthies - control mainly Saad'a province, which has fallen under their control few months back          
• Harak - southern Yemen peaceful political movement
• Yemen Youth throughout Yemen, camping out in Freedom and Change Squares

Armed Forces:

• Saleh's family (son & nephews), commanding Republican Guards and Special Forces, Central Security Forces, etc.
• General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar, commander of First Armored Division, controls part of the capital, near Sanaa University and next to the Youth sit-in camp, knowing as "Change Square". General Mohsen also controls other army brigades in other parts of Yemen. 

Now, let's analyze Yemen situation and the possibility of civil war break out. Saleh has threatened, more than once, if the protests continue, Yemen will turn into second Somalia! Some yemenis feel that way too but in my opinion, referring back to what Saleh said, Yemen isn't Tunisia, Egypt or Libya; I say, Yemen isn't Somalia either. In short, the response is NO! The possibility of civil war break out throughout Yemen is very minimal.

Saleh's regime succeeded in dividing the Yemeni people for such long time but finally we figured out the problem and now demanding immediate elimination of the problem, "Saleh's regime". Going back to the possibility of civil war break out, prior to even General Moshen defection on May 20th, two days after the largest massacre committed by Saleh's security forces and snipers against peaceful protesters, leaving at least 52 people dead, clashes happened between Saleh's forces and tribesmen loyal to Shaikh Sadiq Al-Ahmar. Many people felt the clashes were personal, including the Youth, and none of the other tribes got involved. The same thing applies to Arhab region, northern of the capital, it was shelled many times by the Republican Guards, in an attempt to capture Shaikh Zandani, which Saleh's government believes he's hiding there under the protection of tribesmen. In Taiz, Yemen's second largest city and the heart of Yemen Youth peaceful revolution, clashes happened between peoples' protectors and government forces few times. I didn't mention the existence of Al-Qaeda because it's an issue, Yemeni people as a whole stand against.

Some of you may say, Yemen revolution is no longer peaceful because of the clashes that happened between tribesmen and government forces, but that doesn't necessarily mean the Youth are the ones to blame for! I still feel it's such fascinating for a nation consisting of 23 million in population yet 60+ million pieces of weapons to come out in massive peaceful protests with bare chests while being faced with Saleh's security forces live bullets, RPG's and even Anti-aircraft artillery. Our people own that many pieces of weapons but decided not to use violence. Even defected armed forces, lead by General Mohsen had only minor confrontations with Yemen government forces.

In conclusion, if Saleh's regime chooses continuing its brutal crackdown and the killing of peaceful protesters, it's possible for more clashes to happen but will be limited to some parts of Yemen (the capital, Sanaa, its surroundings and Taiz), as three provinces (Saada, Jawef and Mareb) are no longer under the control of the Yemeni government. It's "lose-lose" situation for Saleh's government!

 

Has Yemen Peaceful Revolution Succeeded?

Asking the same question multiple people, you'll get three different answers (Yes, No and possibly a Maybe). Now, I probably confused you and you're like, help me out here!

Yemen Revolution has its uniqueness just like previous Arab Spring revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and on going revolutions in Bahrain and Syria. What worked in Tunisia doesn't necessarily mean will work in Yemen and so on. Each respected country has unique situation yet our people all demand one thing, end to dictatorship governments and basic human rights. Going back to our question, let's look in depth into the three possible responses:

Yes!
Many yemenis believe Yemen peaceful revolution has succeeded. How? Going back to May 22, 1990, Yemen unification day, south and north Yemen unified the land but our revolution unified our hearts. A drop of blood in Aden is felt in Sanaa and all over Yemen. Saleh's regime ran out of deceitful reasons to divide us as a nation. Massive peaceful protests demanding end to Saleh's regime took place in 17 provinces out of 22. While the regime claims of having support, pro Saleh protest are only carried out in the capital, Sanaa. That raises another question, is the capital still under control of Saleh's regime? The answer is NO! Sanaa is divided into three parts:

• Shaikh Sadiq al-Ahmar's tribesmen control an area of Sanaa, called "Al-Hasaba"
• General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar, commander of First Armored Division, controls part of the capital, near Sanaa University and next to the Youth sit-in camp, knowing as "Change Square".
• Saleh's regime still in control of Yemen government buildings, including Presidential Palace. At minimum, three provinces (Saada, Jawef and Mareb) are no longer under the control of the Yemeni government.

No!
Some people say, most of the armed forces, especially Republican Guards, still under control of Saleh's son, Ahmed. Central Security and other special units still also under control of Saleh's nephews. Thus, Saleh's government still have full control over Yemen despite defection of General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar back on May 20th, two days after the largest massacre committed by Saleh's security forces and snipers against peaceful protesters, leaving at least 52 people dead.


Maybe!
Some people say, the revolution has partially succeeded but due to many uncertainties at this point, it could swing either way. Pointing out, if Houthis in northern Yemen and southern political movement, Harak, demand independent States, then the revolution is failure even with Saleh's ouster. Their biggest fear is the possibility of endless civil war.

Final Thought
In summary, Yemen peaceful revolution, in few days, will enter its tenth month, marking the longest peaceful revolution in history! While some people fear the outcome of our revolution and just want things to go back to what it was prior to the uprising, one thing for sure, we have reached a point where there is no return. Going back is no longer an option! Yes, there are many uncertainties, many challenges ahead of us, many issues may also arise after Saleh's ouster but we're very optimistic about the outcome. As we surprised the world of coming out to the streets peacefully, in a nation consisting of 23 million in population yet 60+ million pieces of weapons. Our people came out in massive peaceful protests demanding basic human rights and an end to  decades of Saleh's corrupt regime with bare chests yet were faced with Saleh's security forces live bullets, RPG's and even Anti-aircraft artillery. The army we thought was there to protect us is being used to kill us. However, no matter what Saleh's regime uses to suppress our revolution, we strongly believe the will of our people will be victorious soon. Our unity is our strength, our strength is in our unity! 

Yemen Unity in Jeopardy!

On May 22, 1990, south Yemen (Democratic Republic of Yemen) and north Yemen (Yemen Arab Republic) unified, aftter being separated for about 40 years. In 1994, a war broke out, demanding South Yemen separation as claimed by Saleh's government. Many people were killed as a result of the war but Yemen remained united.

A political movement by the name "Harak" was formed in southern Yemen, demanding South Yemen independence. Harak is accusing northern Yemenis of stealing lands and properties from southern yemenis, which is not true! By generalizing, it's clear indication, Harak movement is following the same philosophy of Saleh's regime. To be fair, the lands, properties, etc. claimed by the Harak to be taken away by northern Yemenis were in fact distributed by Yemen government among high ranking government officials from both northern and southern Yemen. Yemen citizens in general are being depressed by Saleh's regime either in the south/north part of Yemen. The question is, is separation what southern Yemenis want? Fortunately, many southern Yemenis are against separation and for unity!

I was told by a friend of mine from Yafai, which is in southern Yemen, anyone raises South Yemen flag there is considered pro-Saleh. That shows how much southern Yemenis value unity. We all have been mislead by Saleh's regime for many years but our strength remains in our unity. I have said this before, but will say it again "20 years ago, we only unified the land but our revolution unified our hearts and souls!" Basically, Harak movement does not represent the general public in southern Yemen.

Martyrs of freedom from Aden, Sana'a, Abyan, Taiz and other Yemen cities paid their lives for a better tomorrow. Many of the former politicians careless about ordinary citizens rather have hidden agendas and special interests. They never cared about us then, simply served their personal interests. Is it the time now to criticize such people though? Bad move! Once we start pointing fingers at certain individuals, we lose our momentum on our common mission; which is bringing Saleh's regime down!

I kindly ask my fellow Yemenis, please do not let Saleh's goverment divide us again! We all love to see our beloved country, Yemen, prosper. We have many challengs ahead of us, but with our unity, patience and determination we can open a new page in Yemen's history. Let us put our past behind and work together for better tomorrow!  

Gulf Cooperation Council, Hello neighbor!

Yemen Youth revolution shock the ground under Saleh's government at the time Mubarak's regime came to an end in Egypt. Shortly after, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), lead by Saudi Arabia, proposed initiative to end Yemen's crisis. Even though it was in favor of President Saleh and the ruling party, General People's Congress (GPC), the opposition (JMP) agreed to it and signed it.

What about the Youth demands? In reality, Youth demands are legit but I doubt they'll be met under any peaceful agreement. President Saleh succeeded in manipulating the truth, coming up with various excuses such as AQAP among other things. I have to say, he did well on misleading the International Community, specifically the United States.

My message to the Youth "Do not wait for any foreign assistance/rescue!". We must take matters into our own hands. Yes, we have many challenges and differences but it's time to put differences aside and prioritize our work. The longer we wait, the harder it gets! Let us all put our hands together and give our revolution the boost needed to bring down the corrupt regime!  

Many of us know that the government of Saudi Arabia has influence on Yemen government as well as some tribe leaders. Having stability and civil state in Yemen is considered great danger to the Kingdom next door! So our neighbor, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), will do everything they can to insure, the person to rule Yemen is puppet to them, not necessarily President Saleh.

I was against those who used to critisize the government of KSA but I was wrong. For some reason, I thought they were helping Yemenis but turns out they're helping no one but themselves. I won't get into the details about the Yemeni tribe leaders who receive compensation for their loyalty from the government of KSA. Bottom line is, Yemenis as a whole must stand together in this critical time of Yemen's history to face the challenges ahead of us. Let's face it, if Southern Yemenis, Houthis, etc. each demand dependent state, we'll NOT win over the existing regime. I still don't understand what part of that many people don't understand!

So, it's time to put our grievance behind and look ahead for brighter future. Let us not think about oneself but Yemen as a whole!     

Yemen, what's next?

As Youth remain in sit-ins throughout major Yemen cities (Sanaa, Taiz, Aden, etc.), nothing have changed! The question is, why our revolution have lasted that long with no promising outcome? We're all aware of many challenges facing us as Yemenis but should never be an excuse!

President Saleh left Yemen two months ago for treatment in Saudi Arabic and that did not change anything. Ahmed Ali, his son, is doing a great job of killing innocent civilians. Our newly announced National Transition Council (NTC) did not even survive two days after the announcement. At least 30 pre-selected members refused to participate, claiming they were not consulted with ahead of time.

Anyways, what's next? Should our Youth just continue their peaceful protests? If so, till when?
We have to face reality! Youth can stay years in the sit-ins till they get sick and tired of it and eventually end up going home. YES! That's what will end up happening if Youth do not step up their game. The Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) won't get us anywhere and they already proved their failure many times. That does not mean we should just give up now, as we have reached a point where there is no return.

First step, the Youth throughout Yemen cities should coordinate their efforts. To my knowledge, there is lack of coordination among different groups in the Change Square in Sanaa! If we can't even communicate well among us, how would we expect to bring down Saleh's regime? Let us put our difference aside and focus on the common mission.

Yemeni Youth abroad will continue supporting the Youth in Yemen but there is not much we can do if tents in the Change Square have turned into popular places to chew Qat. If we want a change in Yemen, we must first make a change within ourselves!