Yemen - possibility of civil war break out

Analyzing Yemen's situation or crisis as some people put it, which I disagree with, is such a complex task. Therefore, for someone who didn't live long enough in Yemen and/or doesn't have a clear understanding about its people, history and culture; it's very challenging to analyze the situation! 

Some articles talk about the possibility of civil war break out, without really having a solid ground for such analysis. If Saleh said one thing right, it's "Yemen isn't like Tunisia, Egypt or Libya", to each its uniqueness, despite having similar demands.

Few days ago, wrote an article about "the success of Yemen peaceful revolution", a controversial topic worth taking a closer look into. Another controversial topic came to mind and thought why not address it, especially to those who are unfamiliar with Yemen.


There is an old saying, "understanding the question is half of the answer". With that in mind, let's first identify the problems/issues and then analyze them accordingly, shall we!


Many of us buzz when asked this question, what would happen if civil war breaks out in Yemen? Before looking into the possibilities, few things shall be addressed to give a brief background about Yemen, listing main stakeholders (political and tribal factions, etc.)


Tribes and Politics:

• Tribal ties and loyalties - mainly in Ammran, Mareb, Jawef provinces and parts of Sanaa, Dhamar, Abyan, Bayd'a provinces
• To my knowledge, the biggest tribal federations are Hashid (lead by Shaikh Sadiq Al-Ahmar) and Bakil tribes, which play major role in Yemen's government politics. 
• Joint Meeting Parties, known as JMP, consisting of the rest of Yemen political parties with exception to the ruling party, GPC
• Houthies - control mainly Saad'a province, which has fallen under their control few months back          
• Harak - southern Yemen peaceful political movement
• Yemen Youth throughout Yemen, camping out in Freedom and Change Squares

Armed Forces:

• Saleh's family (son & nephews), commanding Republican Guards and Special Forces, Central Security Forces, etc.
• General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar, commander of First Armored Division, controls part of the capital, near Sanaa University and next to the Youth sit-in camp, knowing as "Change Square". General Mohsen also controls other army brigades in other parts of Yemen. 

Now, let's analyze Yemen situation and the possibility of civil war break out. Saleh has threatened, more than once, if the protests continue, Yemen will turn into second Somalia! Some yemenis feel that way too but in my opinion, referring back to what Saleh said, Yemen isn't Tunisia, Egypt or Libya; I say, Yemen isn't Somalia either. In short, the response is NO! The possibility of civil war break out throughout Yemen is very minimal.

Saleh's regime succeeded in dividing the Yemeni people for such long time but finally we figured out the problem and now demanding immediate elimination of the problem, "Saleh's regime". Going back to the possibility of civil war break out, prior to even General Moshen defection on May 20th, two days after the largest massacre committed by Saleh's security forces and snipers against peaceful protesters, leaving at least 52 people dead, clashes happened between Saleh's forces and tribesmen loyal to Shaikh Sadiq Al-Ahmar. Many people felt the clashes were personal, including the Youth, and none of the other tribes got involved. The same thing applies to Arhab region, northern of the capital, it was shelled many times by the Republican Guards, in an attempt to capture Shaikh Zandani, which Saleh's government believes he's hiding there under the protection of tribesmen. In Taiz, Yemen's second largest city and the heart of Yemen Youth peaceful revolution, clashes happened between peoples' protectors and government forces few times. I didn't mention the existence of Al-Qaeda because it's an issue, Yemeni people as a whole stand against.

Some of you may say, Yemen revolution is no longer peaceful because of the clashes that happened between tribesmen and government forces, but that doesn't necessarily mean the Youth are the ones to blame for! I still feel it's such fascinating for a nation consisting of 23 million in population yet 60+ million pieces of weapons to come out in massive peaceful protests with bare chests while being faced with Saleh's security forces live bullets, RPG's and even Anti-aircraft artillery. Our people own that many pieces of weapons but decided not to use violence. Even defected armed forces, lead by General Mohsen had only minor confrontations with Yemen government forces.

In conclusion, if Saleh's regime chooses continuing its brutal crackdown and the killing of peaceful protesters, it's possible for more clashes to happen but will be limited to some parts of Yemen (the capital, Sanaa, its surroundings and Taiz), as three provinces (Saada, Jawef and Mareb) are no longer under the control of the Yemeni government. It's "lose-lose" situation for Saleh's government!