Has Yemen Peaceful Revolution Succeeded?

Asking the same question multiple people, you'll get three different answers (Yes, No and possibly a Maybe). Now, I probably confused you and you're like, help me out here!

Yemen Revolution has its uniqueness just like previous Arab Spring revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and on going revolutions in Bahrain and Syria. What worked in Tunisia doesn't necessarily mean will work in Yemen and so on. Each respected country has unique situation yet our people all demand one thing, end to dictatorship governments and basic human rights. Going back to our question, let's look in depth into the three possible responses:

Yes!
Many yemenis believe Yemen peaceful revolution has succeeded. How? Going back to May 22, 1990, Yemen unification day, south and north Yemen unified the land but our revolution unified our hearts. A drop of blood in Aden is felt in Sanaa and all over Yemen. Saleh's regime ran out of deceitful reasons to divide us as a nation. Massive peaceful protests demanding end to Saleh's regime took place in 17 provinces out of 22. While the regime claims of having support, pro Saleh protest are only carried out in the capital, Sanaa. That raises another question, is the capital still under control of Saleh's regime? The answer is NO! Sanaa is divided into three parts:

• Shaikh Sadiq al-Ahmar's tribesmen control an area of Sanaa, called "Al-Hasaba"
• General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar, commander of First Armored Division, controls part of the capital, near Sanaa University and next to the Youth sit-in camp, knowing as "Change Square".
• Saleh's regime still in control of Yemen government buildings, including Presidential Palace. At minimum, three provinces (Saada, Jawef and Mareb) are no longer under the control of the Yemeni government.

No!
Some people say, most of the armed forces, especially Republican Guards, still under control of Saleh's son, Ahmed. Central Security and other special units still also under control of Saleh's nephews. Thus, Saleh's government still have full control over Yemen despite defection of General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar back on May 20th, two days after the largest massacre committed by Saleh's security forces and snipers against peaceful protesters, leaving at least 52 people dead.


Maybe!
Some people say, the revolution has partially succeeded but due to many uncertainties at this point, it could swing either way. Pointing out, if Houthis in northern Yemen and southern political movement, Harak, demand independent States, then the revolution is failure even with Saleh's ouster. Their biggest fear is the possibility of endless civil war.

Final Thought
In summary, Yemen peaceful revolution, in few days, will enter its tenth month, marking the longest peaceful revolution in history! While some people fear the outcome of our revolution and just want things to go back to what it was prior to the uprising, one thing for sure, we have reached a point where there is no return. Going back is no longer an option! Yes, there are many uncertainties, many challenges ahead of us, many issues may also arise after Saleh's ouster but we're very optimistic about the outcome. As we surprised the world of coming out to the streets peacefully, in a nation consisting of 23 million in population yet 60+ million pieces of weapons. Our people came out in massive peaceful protests demanding basic human rights and an end to  decades of Saleh's corrupt regime with bare chests yet were faced with Saleh's security forces live bullets, RPG's and even Anti-aircraft artillery. The army we thought was there to protect us is being used to kill us. However, no matter what Saleh's regime uses to suppress our revolution, we strongly believe the will of our people will be victorious soon. Our unity is our strength, our strength is in our unity! 

Luxury Condo, For Saleh or Rent

Interesting article by Ken Silverstein, thought of sharing it. To read more, please visit the source as this is only PART I of the article, revealing some of Ahmed Ali Saleh real estate assets.

Why is Yemen’s presidential family loaded up with millions of dollars in D.C. real estate?

BY KEN SILVERSTEIN | OCTOBER 18, 2011

Jack Blum, an attorney and former Senate counsel who played a key role in investigations into the Bank of Credit and Commerce International and the Lockheed Corp.'s overseas bribery scandal, summarized the key questions surrounding Ahmed Ali Saleh's condo-buying: "Was an American bank involved at any point in the transactions, and if so, did it file a suspicious activities report? If so, was anything done with it, or did it just make for interesting wastepaper? Where did he get the money? Could he have afforded to buy the properties on his official salary?"

Al-Basha, at Yemen's Washington embassy, would not provide information on the salary of President Saleh, his son, or other top government officials.

Meanwhile, back in Yemen the uprising continues. President Saleh has repeatedly said he's going to leave office -- only to back away at the last minute.
The rental listing suggests that neither the president nor his eldest son plan on retiring to Washington anytime soon, however. The property owner "will consider long term lease," the listing says, so it looks as though Ahmed Ali Saleh isn't ready to move in to his luxury condo just yet.

 source: Foreign Policy

Yemen - politicians play the terrorism game

(Yemen Times) SANA’A, Oct 12 — In his major speech, Yemen’s embattled President Ali Abdullah Saleh, on Saturday, accused defected major general Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar of aiding armed Islamists. It is believed that these Islamists are of the same consortium that took control of Abyan late last May.

This speech was Saleh's second since his return from Saudi Arabia after three months of medical treatment for injuries he sustained during an assassination attempt at his presidential palace early last June.

During his meeting on Saturday with a number of Shoura and Parliament members President Saleh said, “since 2006 and me winning the elections and the JMP losing and the country has been in continuous turmoil. One of the lawless and defecting generals [Ali Muhsin Al-Ahmar] calls a military commander in Abyan [Mohammed Al-Somali] asking him to surrender Abyan to the revolutionaries and we will pull themselves as Al-Qaeda from the areas

“Where are the American Intelligence and the FBI? They keep pestering us day and night about Al-Qaeda? But I am still siding with the war against terrorism and its supporters,” said Saleh.

However this accusation by Saleh against the defected army which sided with the peaceful revolution demanding an end to Saleh’s 33-year rule came only one week ago when the Yemen’s air-force bombarded a military position in the center of war-torn Zunjbar belonging to the defected army. This took place whilst they advanced in the city against the armed Islamists, according to Anis Mansour, an expert on Al-Qaeda and a local journalist in Aden who has reported exclusive news on the recent development in Abyan.

Mansour claims that his sources in the military and local areas provide him with details and facts of the battles. He explained that he knows three of Al-Qaeda’s members who were killed late last August during fighting in Abyan against the army and they were identified as agents of Saleh’s regime.

“The intelligence service leader’s son in Al-Jawf was one of those who lost his life in the fighting in Abyan. It was he who was battling with the armed Islamists,”  said Mansour.

“ Another son of prominent tribal leader, Sagheer Bin Azeez in Amran governorate who is loyal to president Saleh was killed while was fighting with the armed Islamists,” he said.

Further, he said, “there are local tribesmen in Abyan loyal to the Islah Party -- the opposition Islamic party -- who fought against Al-Qaeda recently. It is they who supplied the blockaded 25th Mechanic brigade that sided with the revolution through the provision of food during the three-month siege imposed on the military camp by the armed Islamists.

However, last July, Yemen’s air-force shelled the military position that belonged to the opposition tribal forces fighting against Al-Qaeda and killed around 40 tribesmen and wounded others, according to Mansour. Further, a teenager from Ashal tribe in Abyan whose tribe has supported the defected army against Al-Qaeda in Abyan was assassinated in September in the capital Sana’a for their position against Al-Qaeda, according to Mansour.

 “The position of the Islah party [which is the most tangible opposition party to defected Al-Ahmar] is clear on the premise that Al-Qaeda is a terrorist organization. They do also believe that Al-Qaeda was made by Saleh to use it as a bargaining card to remain in the power,” Mansour said.

Three days ago, a house in the Musaimair district of Lahj governorate belonging to a tribal leader loyal to the defected general Al-Ahmar was destroyed by Saleh’s security forces. The security agents claimed that “the tribal leader is a spy for the defected general.” “In fact the military brigades who sided with the revolution are fighting fiercely and with clear determination against Al-Qaeda, but Saleh’s loyal army hinders their advances in order to prolong the battle against Al-Qaeda in Abyan. This is a merely a political tool,” he said.

Warning: ‘Islamic emirate of Ja’ar’ being established in Abyan, Yemen. emptyquarter

However, according to Mansour, the defected general Al-Ahmar has his own loyal jihadists in Abyan.

“Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar has his own terrorist group commanded by the two well-known Jihadists in Abyan: Khaled Abd Al-Nabi and Abd Alateef Al-Sayed. The two concerned fled Abyan one month after the battle between armed Islamists and army started in Abyan. Mansour elaborated, "this group is known as jihadists as well and they are moving upon orders from the general Ali Mohsen,” he said. Tareq Al-Fadli, a former Yemeni jihadist based in Abyan who fought in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union is a brother-in-law to the defected general as the latter is married to Al-Fadli’s sister. This former jihadist is closely connected to the jihadists commanded by Abd Al-Nabi. Al-Nabi is an ally of the defected general, according to Anees Mansour.

Conclusion 

“There is concrete evidence that supports the opposition’s claim that Saleh’s regime has been prolonging the fighting against Al-Qaeda in Abyan. This is in order to utilize that as card for Saleh to remain in power,” said Mansour.

“Tribesmen loyal to the army against Al-Qaeda were bombarded last July, defected army teams who were advancing inside Zunjbar was air-raided on Oct 1st  who were forced to move backward while they were progressing much and were about to take control of Zunjbar.,” he said.

According to Mansour that which is taking place in Abyan is well-linked to the political crisis in the capital and “when this crisis finishes in Sana’a, the Al-Qaeda-army battle in Abyan will be resolved immediately.”

Khaled Abd Al-Nabi, commander of Islamic Jihadists who are an ally to the defected general Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar has been imprisoned many times, but was released with no explanations which hints that military leaders in top positions from both the defected and Saleh’s camps are in contact with the armed Islamists.

Each party uses Al-Qaeda to achieve some political purposes.

The armed Islamists who are dominant in Abyan at the moment, and known as “The Islamic law supporters” have links with Al-Qaeda but large numbers of its members are intelligence agents. Not all are aware of the status of their fellow Islamists, according to Mansour.

Saeed Ubaid Al-Jemhi, another Yemeni expert on Al-Qaeda and author of “Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula” has often told then Yemen Times that both the  regime and the opposition have been playing the Al-Qaeda card to get the western support for power."


source: Yemen Times

Timeline: Protests against Saleh rule in Yemen

Jan 29, 2011 - October 9, 2011
(Reuters) - Following is a timeline of events since protests against the 33-year rule of Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh began in January this year:

Jan 29, 2011 - Yemen's ruling party calls for dialogue with the opposition. Saleh supporters attack, disperse Yemenis trying to march to the Egyptian embassy to express solidarity with Egyptian anti-government demonstrators. Yemeni protesters chant "the people want the regime to fall."

Feb 3 - A day of anti-government protests brings more than 20,000 people onto the streets in Sanaa.

March 2 - The opposition presents Saleh with a plan for a transition of power, offering him a graceful exit. Saleh says he will draw up a new constitution to create a parliamentary system. The opposition rejects the proposal.

March 18 - Snipers kill 52 protesters at Sanaa University after Friday prayers. Saleh declares a state of emergency.

March 20 - Saleh dismisses his government.

March 21 - Senior army commanders, including Saleh ally General Ali Mohsen, commander of the northwest military zone, say they have switched support to pro-democracy activists.

March 23 - Saleh offers to step down by the end of 2011. He proposes to hold a referendum on a new constitution, then a parliamentary election and presidential vote.

March 25 - Saleh says he is ready to cede power to stop more bloodshed. Thousands rally in "Day of Departure" protests.

March 29 - Saleh holds talks with Mohammed al-Yadoumi, head of the Islamist Islah party, once a partner in government. Saleh proposes staying in office until elections but transferring his powers to a caretaker. The opposition rejects the offer.

April 2 - The opposition proposes a five-point plan for the army and security forces to be restructured by a vice-president acting as temporary president.

April 6 - Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani says the regional Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) will strike a deal for Saleh to leave.

April 18 - Ruling party members form Justice and Development Bloc to support protests.

April 23 - Saleh agrees to step down in weeks in return for immunity from prosecution. The opposition agrees to the plan.

April 25 - The opposition agrees to join a transitional government under a Gulf-negotiated plan for Saleh to step aside.

April 30 - Saleh appears to sabotage the plan by refusing to sign in his capacity as president. GCC mediators tell the opposition Saleh will only sign the deal as leader of his party.

May 13 - Huge crowds across Yemen demand Saleh leave. Saleh declares: "We will confront a challenge with a challenge."

May 21 - The opposition signs the transition deal.

May 22 - Five members of the ruling party sign the deal, but Gulf Arab states suspend it after Saleh asks for additional conditions and diplomats fail to persuade him to sign it.

-- Loyalist gunmen trap Western and Arab diplomats in the UAE embassy in Sanaa, blocking mediators from going to the presidential palace. Diplomats later leave by helicopter.

May 23 - Saleh apologizes to the UAE, foreign governments criticize him for refusing to sign.

May 24 - Saleh's refusal to sign sparks street battles in Sanaa between security forces and a powerful tribal group, the Hashed tribal alliance, led by Sadeq al-Ahmar. At least 20 people are killed.

May 26 - Several countries, including United States, ask their diplomats to leave.

May 28 - Security forces and tribesmen agree to a truce.

May 30 - Truce breaks down, militants regain control of ruling party building in the Hasaba district of Sanaa.

June 3 - Opposition parades through Sanaa the bodies of 50 people it says were killed in clashes with Saleh's forces.

-- A bomb explodes at Saleh's palace in Sanaa, wounding the president, the prime minister, and the parliament speaker.

-- Saleh leaves for treatment in Riyadh

June 4 - Vice-President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi takes over as acting president and supreme commander of the armed forces.

July 7 - Saleh makes first televised appearance since attack, says he supports dialogue and welcomes power sharing.

July 25 - Opposition rejects government plan for dialogue, refusing to negotiate until Saleh signs transition deal.

Aug 20 - Several opposition figures quit newly formed National Council, exposing division in anti-government movement.

Aug 29 - Saleh says he is committed to holding elections for a new president as soon as possible.

Sept 7 - Ruling party approves changes to power transfer plan, which would transfer Saleh's powers to his vice president but give him three months to formally step down.

Sept 12 - Saleh empowers vice president to sign deal.

Sept 21 - Yemeni forces clash again with soldiers loyal to defected top general Ali Mohsen, violating a short-lived truce.

-- GCC Secretary General Abdbullatif al-Zayani leaves Sanaa after failing to get a power transfer deal signed.

Sept 23 - Saleh returns from Saudi Arabia, greeted by gunfire and explosions.

Sept 24 - At least 17 people are killed when government forces attack the main opposition protest camp in Sanaa, raising death toll in five days of fighting to at least 100.

-- Saleh says he is "carrying the dove of peace and the olive branch."

Sept 30 - Saleh says he will step down only if key rivals do not take over.

-- Yemeni and U.S. officials say Anwar al-Awlaki, a U.S.-born Muslim preacher linked to al Qaeda's Yemen-based wing, has been killed in an air strike.

Oct 3 - U.N. envoy Jamal Benomar leaves Yemen to brief the Security Council on what appears to be a fruitless effort to end the crisis.

Oct 8 - Saleh says he will step down in "the coming days" after months of protests, but the government says his exit is not imminent.

Oct 9 - U.S. Ambassador Gerald Feierstein meets Yemeni Foreign Minister Abubakr Abdullah Al-Qirbi and discusses the power transfer plan, official news agency SABA reports.

(Reporting by David Cutler, London Editorial Reference Unit; Additional writing by Jason Benham)

source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/09/us-yemen-events-idUSTRE7981BN20111009