Is inking the Gulf Coordination Council Initiative a positive step?

Disclaimer: this article doesn't represent the view of the Yemeni Youth rather it's just my personal view and analysis of the Gulf Coordination Council Initiative, knowing as the GCC deal.

We have been campaigning in the social media (Twitter, Facebook, etc.) against the signing of the GCC deal using hash tag #No2GCCdeal and also promoting it using Facebook  page. Now that the GCC deal has been signed by Saleh, Ruling Party and the Opposition, we need to move beyond that. Instead of criticizing the deal, looking at it as a positive step towards moving the country forward. The Youth have legit demands but let us keep in mind, some demands will take months and maybe years to be met. So, let's take things one-step at a time.

Now, you're probably thinking, what's wrong with this dude? Did he turn against the Youth? Of course not! but let's take a look at our options and think with our brains not our emotions!

How many possible options we had? Only two options...

Option 1 - Peaceful Transition of Power According to the GCC deal

In my opinion, this is the safest option even though it only meets the bare minimum of the Youth demands. The Youth have many legit demands such as prosecuting Saleh and everyone who committed crimes against the Yemeni people. In theory, that's great! But in reality, it's almost impossible peacefully. Look at what has happened in Iraq in the past ten years or so as a result of prosecuting Saddam's regime officials. Also, looking back at what happened in Libya, after the NATO got involved and even after Gaddafi killed thousands of people, the International Community attempted many times to negotiate an exit deal for Gaddafi but he refused. That's why I said let us think with our brains not with our emotions. A reconciliation is the best way to go!

Option 2 - Use of Force 

My prediction is that if we turn to military option as a solution, buckle up! Because we'll be taking long bumpy ride to the unknown!

If Saleh said one thing wise, it's "Yemen isn't Tunisia, Egypt or Libya" and I second that.Zooming in little closer at this option, if war breaks out,my guess it'll be led by General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar and Shaikh Sadiq Al-Ahmar tribe will be also get involved if not more tribes will jump in. Let's just say we conquer Saleh's regime, you think General Mohsen and Shaikh Sadiq will say, we got rid of Saleh's regime/Ruling Party, you may now elect a new President? You're wrong! 
They'll say, since we fought Saleh by sacrificing our lives, now we must have at least big share in the new Yemeni government if not the entire government. It doesn't stop there, the Houthies in northern Yemen will demand independent State, the southern movement (Harak) will also demand independent State, we'll end up losing Abyan province to al-Qaeda for good and I'll personally move to southern Yemen because I had enough of Al-Ahmar's family.

Now, is it worth losing thousands more lives simply to prosecute few individuals? 
Think twice because the outcome is very expensive. I say, let us as a unified nation put the past behind and think about a brighter tomororow. We'll achieve our demands over time but we must be patient and put Yemen's best interest our top priority.

Many people may ask, what about the families of the martyrs? Theoretically, those who killed innocent people must be tried but in reality, if we turn to that option, we'll end up creating more issues than solving existing ones. However, the families of the martyrs MUST be given special attention. We can't bring back the dead but the new Yemeni government have to take care of their love ones.

Yemen Youth revolution has changed history to mark itself by far, the longest peaceful revolution. However, the Youth have been camping in the sit-ins for ten months but certainly won't camp there forever.  

My suggestion is to put the GCC deal behind and move on. The Youth continue their demands peacefully till we see what the unity government has to offer under the leadership of Voice President Hadi. Let us be optimistic not pessimistic and look at the bright side of the GCC deal. You may disagree with me but I feel we have at least achieved one of our revolution goals by bringing down Saleh

 

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Initiative - Revisit

About two months ago, I wrote an article about the Gulf Coordination Council (GCC) initiaitive and here we're revisiting the GCC deal that we got stuck with since April of 2011.

I don't know about you, with all due respect to the citizens of Saudi Arabia, I call the GCC initiative, "KSA Royal Family Initiative". The initiative/deal was proposed by the KSA Royal Family and the rest of Gulf Countries were dragged into it. Either way, let's take closer look at it... 

On Thursday, November 10th, the United Nations envoy Jamal Benomar arrived in the capital of Yemen, Sanaa, to negotiate a handover of power in hopes of ending the ongoing protests calling for immediate step-down of President Saleh. Now, you are probably thinking, it's great if Saleh and the Ruling Party, GPC, sign the GCC initiative, problem solved!!! You might want to think about it twice because signing the GCC initiative works in favor of Saleh's regime. What about the Youth and their demands? The term "Youth" shall mean the brave men and women camping in the sit-ins and those supporting the peaceful revolution to bring down the corrupt regime.

Aljazeera reported, Yemeni government officials told the Associated Press that if Benomar's trip is successful, Saleh would issue a decree handing over all powers to Vice President Hadi who would then sign an April Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) initiative to name an opposition politician to form a new national unity government to prepare for early elections.

Analysis:

On May 20th, two days after the largest massacre committed by Saleh's security forces and snipers against peaceful protesters, leaving at least 52 people dead, Commander of First Armored Division, General Ali Moshen Al-Ahmar defected. Things were moving fast and in favor of the revolution. Saudi Arabia realized Saleh's regime was about to fall. 

On April 6th, a proposed initiative, lead by Saudi Arabia, was introduced to end Yemen's crisis. Even though it was in favor of President Saleh and the Ruling Party, General People's Congress (GPC), the opposition (JMP) agreed to it and signed it.   

Many of us know that the government of Saudi Arabia has influence on Yemen government as well as some tribe leaders. Having stability and civil state in Yemen is considered a great danger to the Kingdom next door! So our neighbor, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), will do everything they can to insure, the person to rule Yemen is puppet to them, not necessarily President Saleh. Basically, the GCC initiative from day one was a trap to slow down Youth efforts and help Saleh remain in power. 

Considering Saleh, the Ruling Party (GPC) and the opposition (JMP), all signed the GCC initiative, it would only mean ONE-DEMAND has been met, which is removal of Saleh from power. In my opinion, signing the GCC deal will make it more challenging for the Yemeni people to get their demands met, why? Simply, by having a unity government, it means instead of just dealing with Saleh's regime, we'll be faced with the opposition (JMP) and Saleh's regime.

My guess, Saleh is willing to sign the GCC deal and step down if the GCC initiative guarantees at least the followings: 

• Immunity from prosecution for him, his family and relatives
• Maintaining his son Ahmed and nephews in charge of the Armed Forces

To me, agreeing to the above conditions mean a failure to the revolution because Saleh's relatives were the ones who ordered the killings of hundreds of innocent yemeni civilians and should be accountable for their brutal actions. How could today's killers be tomorrow's heroes!  

It's time to put our efforts together for better tomorrow and think not about oneself but Yemen as a whole!     

#SupportYemen

Yemen - possibility of civil war break out

Analyzing Yemen's situation or crisis as some people put it, which I disagree with, is such a complex task. Therefore, for someone who didn't live long enough in Yemen and/or doesn't have a clear understanding about its people, history and culture; it's very challenging to analyze the situation! 

Some articles talk about the possibility of civil war break out, without really having a solid ground for such analysis. If Saleh said one thing right, it's "Yemen isn't like Tunisia, Egypt or Libya", to each its uniqueness, despite having similar demands.

Few days ago, wrote an article about "the success of Yemen peaceful revolution", a controversial topic worth taking a closer look into. Another controversial topic came to mind and thought why not address it, especially to those who are unfamiliar with Yemen.


There is an old saying, "understanding the question is half of the answer". With that in mind, let's first identify the problems/issues and then analyze them accordingly, shall we!


Many of us buzz when asked this question, what would happen if civil war breaks out in Yemen? Before looking into the possibilities, few things shall be addressed to give a brief background about Yemen, listing main stakeholders (political and tribal factions, etc.)


Tribes and Politics:

• Tribal ties and loyalties - mainly in Ammran, Mareb, Jawef provinces and parts of Sanaa, Dhamar, Abyan, Bayd'a provinces
• To my knowledge, the biggest tribal federations are Hashid (lead by Shaikh Sadiq Al-Ahmar) and Bakil tribes, which play major role in Yemen's government politics. 
• Joint Meeting Parties, known as JMP, consisting of the rest of Yemen political parties with exception to the ruling party, GPC
• Houthies - control mainly Saad'a province, which has fallen under their control few months back          
• Harak - southern Yemen peaceful political movement
• Yemen Youth throughout Yemen, camping out in Freedom and Change Squares

Armed Forces:

• Saleh's family (son & nephews), commanding Republican Guards and Special Forces, Central Security Forces, etc.
• General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar, commander of First Armored Division, controls part of the capital, near Sanaa University and next to the Youth sit-in camp, knowing as "Change Square". General Mohsen also controls other army brigades in other parts of Yemen. 

Now, let's analyze Yemen situation and the possibility of civil war break out. Saleh has threatened, more than once, if the protests continue, Yemen will turn into second Somalia! Some yemenis feel that way too but in my opinion, referring back to what Saleh said, Yemen isn't Tunisia, Egypt or Libya; I say, Yemen isn't Somalia either. In short, the response is NO! The possibility of civil war break out throughout Yemen is very minimal.

Saleh's regime succeeded in dividing the Yemeni people for such long time but finally we figured out the problem and now demanding immediate elimination of the problem, "Saleh's regime". Going back to the possibility of civil war break out, prior to even General Moshen defection on May 20th, two days after the largest massacre committed by Saleh's security forces and snipers against peaceful protesters, leaving at least 52 people dead, clashes happened between Saleh's forces and tribesmen loyal to Shaikh Sadiq Al-Ahmar. Many people felt the clashes were personal, including the Youth, and none of the other tribes got involved. The same thing applies to Arhab region, northern of the capital, it was shelled many times by the Republican Guards, in an attempt to capture Shaikh Zandani, which Saleh's government believes he's hiding there under the protection of tribesmen. In Taiz, Yemen's second largest city and the heart of Yemen Youth peaceful revolution, clashes happened between peoples' protectors and government forces few times. I didn't mention the existence of Al-Qaeda because it's an issue, Yemeni people as a whole stand against.

Some of you may say, Yemen revolution is no longer peaceful because of the clashes that happened between tribesmen and government forces, but that doesn't necessarily mean the Youth are the ones to blame for! I still feel it's such fascinating for a nation consisting of 23 million in population yet 60+ million pieces of weapons to come out in massive peaceful protests with bare chests while being faced with Saleh's security forces live bullets, RPG's and even Anti-aircraft artillery. Our people own that many pieces of weapons but decided not to use violence. Even defected armed forces, lead by General Mohsen had only minor confrontations with Yemen government forces.

In conclusion, if Saleh's regime chooses continuing its brutal crackdown and the killing of peaceful protesters, it's possible for more clashes to happen but will be limited to some parts of Yemen (the capital, Sanaa, its surroundings and Taiz), as three provinces (Saada, Jawef and Mareb) are no longer under the control of the Yemeni government. It's "lose-lose" situation for Saleh's government!

 

Has Yemen Peaceful Revolution Succeeded?

Asking the same question multiple people, you'll get three different answers (Yes, No and possibly a Maybe). Now, I probably confused you and you're like, help me out here!

Yemen Revolution has its uniqueness just like previous Arab Spring revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and on going revolutions in Bahrain and Syria. What worked in Tunisia doesn't necessarily mean will work in Yemen and so on. Each respected country has unique situation yet our people all demand one thing, end to dictatorship governments and basic human rights. Going back to our question, let's look in depth into the three possible responses:

Yes!
Many yemenis believe Yemen peaceful revolution has succeeded. How? Going back to May 22, 1990, Yemen unification day, south and north Yemen unified the land but our revolution unified our hearts. A drop of blood in Aden is felt in Sanaa and all over Yemen. Saleh's regime ran out of deceitful reasons to divide us as a nation. Massive peaceful protests demanding end to Saleh's regime took place in 17 provinces out of 22. While the regime claims of having support, pro Saleh protest are only carried out in the capital, Sanaa. That raises another question, is the capital still under control of Saleh's regime? The answer is NO! Sanaa is divided into three parts:

• Shaikh Sadiq al-Ahmar's tribesmen control an area of Sanaa, called "Al-Hasaba"
• General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar, commander of First Armored Division, controls part of the capital, near Sanaa University and next to the Youth sit-in camp, knowing as "Change Square".
• Saleh's regime still in control of Yemen government buildings, including Presidential Palace. At minimum, three provinces (Saada, Jawef and Mareb) are no longer under the control of the Yemeni government.

No!
Some people say, most of the armed forces, especially Republican Guards, still under control of Saleh's son, Ahmed. Central Security and other special units still also under control of Saleh's nephews. Thus, Saleh's government still have full control over Yemen despite defection of General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar back on May 20th, two days after the largest massacre committed by Saleh's security forces and snipers against peaceful protesters, leaving at least 52 people dead.


Maybe!
Some people say, the revolution has partially succeeded but due to many uncertainties at this point, it could swing either way. Pointing out, if Houthis in northern Yemen and southern political movement, Harak, demand independent States, then the revolution is failure even with Saleh's ouster. Their biggest fear is the possibility of endless civil war.

Final Thought
In summary, Yemen peaceful revolution, in few days, will enter its tenth month, marking the longest peaceful revolution in history! While some people fear the outcome of our revolution and just want things to go back to what it was prior to the uprising, one thing for sure, we have reached a point where there is no return. Going back is no longer an option! Yes, there are many uncertainties, many challenges ahead of us, many issues may also arise after Saleh's ouster but we're very optimistic about the outcome. As we surprised the world of coming out to the streets peacefully, in a nation consisting of 23 million in population yet 60+ million pieces of weapons. Our people came out in massive peaceful protests demanding basic human rights and an end to  decades of Saleh's corrupt regime with bare chests yet were faced with Saleh's security forces live bullets, RPG's and even Anti-aircraft artillery. The army we thought was there to protect us is being used to kill us. However, no matter what Saleh's regime uses to suppress our revolution, we strongly believe the will of our people will be victorious soon. Our unity is our strength, our strength is in our unity! 

Luxury Condo, For Saleh or Rent

Interesting article by Ken Silverstein, thought of sharing it. To read more, please visit the source as this is only PART I of the article, revealing some of Ahmed Ali Saleh real estate assets.

Why is Yemen’s presidential family loaded up with millions of dollars in D.C. real estate?

BY KEN SILVERSTEIN | OCTOBER 18, 2011

Jack Blum, an attorney and former Senate counsel who played a key role in investigations into the Bank of Credit and Commerce International and the Lockheed Corp.'s overseas bribery scandal, summarized the key questions surrounding Ahmed Ali Saleh's condo-buying: "Was an American bank involved at any point in the transactions, and if so, did it file a suspicious activities report? If so, was anything done with it, or did it just make for interesting wastepaper? Where did he get the money? Could he have afforded to buy the properties on his official salary?"

Al-Basha, at Yemen's Washington embassy, would not provide information on the salary of President Saleh, his son, or other top government officials.

Meanwhile, back in Yemen the uprising continues. President Saleh has repeatedly said he's going to leave office -- only to back away at the last minute.
The rental listing suggests that neither the president nor his eldest son plan on retiring to Washington anytime soon, however. The property owner "will consider long term lease," the listing says, so it looks as though Ahmed Ali Saleh isn't ready to move in to his luxury condo just yet.

 source: Foreign Policy