Disclaimer: this article doesn't represent the view of the Yemeni Youth rather it's just my personal view and analysis of the Gulf Coordination Council Initiative, knowing as the GCC deal.
We have been campaigning in the social media (Twitter, Facebook, etc.) against the signing of the GCC deal using hash tag #No2GCCdeal and also promoting it using Facebook page. Now that the GCC deal has been signed by Saleh, Ruling Party and the Opposition, we need to move beyond that. Instead of criticizing the deal, looking at it as a positive step towards moving the country forward. The Youth have legit demands but let us keep in mind, some demands will take months and maybe years to be met. So, let's take things one-step at a time.
Now, you're probably thinking, what's wrong with this dude? Did he turn against the Youth? Of course not! but let's take a look at our options and think with our brains not our emotions!
How many possible options we had? Only two options...
Option 1 - Peaceful Transition of Power According to the GCC deal
In my opinion, this is the safest option even though it only meets the bare minimum of the Youth demands. The Youth have many legit demands such as prosecuting Saleh and everyone who committed crimes against the Yemeni people. In theory, that's great! But in reality, it's almost impossible peacefully. Look at what has happened in Iraq in the past ten years or so as a result of prosecuting Saddam's regime officials. Also, looking back at what happened in Libya, after the NATO got involved and even after Gaddafi killed thousands of people, the International Community attempted many times to negotiate an exit deal for Gaddafi but he refused. That's why I said let us think with our brains not with our emotions. A reconciliation is the best way to go!
Option 2 - Use of Force
My prediction is that if we turn to military option as a solution, buckle up! Because we'll be taking long bumpy ride to the unknown!
If Saleh said one thing wise, it's "Yemen isn't Tunisia, Egypt or Libya" and I second that.Zooming in little closer at this option, if war breaks out,my guess it'll be led by General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar and Shaikh Sadiq Al-Ahmar tribe will be also get involved if not more tribes will jump in. Let's just say we conquer Saleh's regime, you think General Mohsen and Shaikh Sadiq will say, we got rid of Saleh's regime/Ruling Party, you may now elect a new President? You're wrong!
They'll say, since we fought Saleh by sacrificing our lives, now we must have at least big share in the new Yemeni government if not the entire government. It doesn't stop there, the Houthies in northern Yemen will demand independent State, the southern movement (Harak) will also demand independent State, we'll end up losing Abyan province to al-Qaeda for good and I'll personally move to southern Yemen because I had enough of Al-Ahmar's family.
They'll say, since we fought Saleh by sacrificing our lives, now we must have at least big share in the new Yemeni government if not the entire government. It doesn't stop there, the Houthies in northern Yemen will demand independent State, the southern movement (Harak) will also demand independent State, we'll end up losing Abyan province to al-Qaeda for good and I'll personally move to southern Yemen because I had enough of Al-Ahmar's family.
Now, is it worth losing thousands more lives simply to prosecute few individuals?
Think twice because the outcome is very expensive. I say, let us as a unified nation put the past behind and think about a brighter tomororow. We'll achieve our demands over time but we must be patient and put Yemen's best interest our top priority.
Think twice because the outcome is very expensive. I say, let us as a unified nation put the past behind and think about a brighter tomororow. We'll achieve our demands over time but we must be patient and put Yemen's best interest our top priority.
Many people may ask, what about the families of the martyrs? Theoretically, those who killed innocent people must be tried but in reality, if we turn to that option, we'll end up creating more issues than solving existing ones. However, the families of the martyrs MUST be given special attention. We can't bring back the dead but the new Yemeni government have to take care of their love ones.
Yemen Youth revolution has changed history to mark itself by far, the longest peaceful revolution. However, the Youth have been camping in the sit-ins for ten months but certainly won't camp there forever.
My suggestion is to put the GCC deal behind and move on. The Youth continue their demands peacefully till we see what the unity government has to offer under the leadership of Voice President Hadi. Let us be optimistic not pessimistic and look at the bright side of the GCC deal. You may disagree with me but I feel we have at least achieved one of our revolution goals by bringing down Saleh
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